For once and for all

October 21st, 2008

There will be a lot more race-based black votes this election day than there will be raced-based white votes.

Entry Filed under: Politics

4 Comments Add your own

  • 1. Tim  |  October 21st, 2008 at 2:43 pm

    To equate the two is ludicrous. One vote is based on hate. The other largely on hope. Don’t tell me you can’t figure out which one.

  • 2. elliot  |  October 21st, 2008 at 2:59 pm

    I understand there is a difference in motivation, but the decision is still race-based. And, in general, I can’t see how there’s a quantitative difference between blacks voting for blacks because of their skin color and whites voting for whites for the same reason.

    (And we’ve just encapsulated the conflict between the right and the left when it comes to Affirmative Action, btw ;) )

  • 3. jimspice  |  October 21st, 2008 at 4:16 pm

    If you were to say a larger percentage of blacks are basing their vote on race, I might tend to agree — after all this is a historic event for the black community. But actual numbers?

    Let’s do a little math. I honestly do not know the answer as I begin.

    OK. There are 300 million people in the US. 75%, or 210 million are white. 18%, or 54 milion are black. Assuming turnout of 60%, 126 million whites and 34.2 million blacks will cast ballots.

    Now, if the voting were perfectly random, we would expect a near-perfect 50/50 split. But we expect a 90% black vote for Obama. Just to give you the benefit of the doubt, let’s assume that entire extra 40% is based on race and no other factor. That would mean that 13 million blacks voted based on race alone.

    Now let’s also assume 13 million white votes are based on race. That would mean only 10% of white voters let race dictate their vote.

    If 10.1% or more of whites votes are based on race, there will be more white race votes than black race votes.

    Now the real question is, what’s the real percentage. I don’t think 10.1% is that far off.

    spice

  • 4. elliot  |  October 21st, 2008 at 4:20 pm

    Interesting thinking, Jim. And I’ll be damned if I know the real numbers. The world’s a complicated place, ain’t it?

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Being in a wheelchair gives you a unique perspective on the world. This blog features many of my views on politics, art, science, and entertainment. My name is Elliot Stearns. More...

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